The Argonaut 1970’s Redux “Stockumentary”

The Argonaut 1970’s Redux “Stockumentary”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has hastened the new stagflationary era: accelerating deglobalisation and highlighting the imprudent lack of fossil fuel investment by the West. The Bank of England has just hiked interest rates into a forecast recession. Recent attempts from the Federal Reserve to calm inflationary fears through “front-end loaded” rate hikes have served only to underline the futility of attempting to manage global supply shocks with aggregate demand tools. Investors are losing confidence in financial assets as a store of wealth. The 1970’s redux has now arrived.

Last October – with stock markets at all-time highs - we highlighted the risk that the roaring ‘20’s would give way to a ‘70’s stagflation https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/10/06/from-the-roaring-20s-to-70s-stagflation-redux/:that there would be a series of worsening supply shocks for which financial markets were ill prepared and central banks impotent to resolve. After more than a decade long boom in long duration equities and bonds, few investors had any hedge for a Seventies redux https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/10/26/drowning-in-a-bubble-bath/ where wealth rather than wages would be the financial patsy. We had also previously warned that contrary to the prevailing consensus we were about to enter a new macro regime where “thinking long-term” and “investing in innovation” would be financially disastrous https://blog.argonautcapital.co.uk/articles/2021/05/10/think-short-term/.

But what were the 1970’s really like for investors? And what lessons can we learn for investing today? Argonaut now presents our 24-minute original “Stockumentary” on “The 1970’s Redux”: 

1. Do you remember the 1970’s? https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=7
2. The bull market in gold https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=51
3. The bull market in oil https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=162
4. Inflation and interest rates https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=218
5. Stock markets in the Seventies https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=280
6. Inflation redux https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=395
7. De-globalisation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=420
8. De-carbonisation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=682
9. Central bank money printing https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=799
10. The politics of inflation https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1034
11. Investing lessons from the ‘70’s https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1143
12. New rules, new strategies https://youtu.be/5jW3iaoV_RA?t=1217

Barry Norris
CEO and Fund Manager
Argonaut Capital 

Investing in the Free World